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why is it so hard to forecast?

Scientists believe that we will never be able to forecast the weather accurately beyond a couple of weeks. This is because tiny errors tend to add up, and after a while the errors are so large that any forecast is impossible. This is known as "sensitive dependence on initial conditions".

Many things have this property. One example is a pendulum swinging above three magnets. Set it going and see if you can 'forecast' which of the three magnets will attract it. Now move the start point very slightly and try again. A small change in the starting position can cause the pendulum to take a completely different path.

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